Copyright 2012 by John T. Reed
I don’t know who’s going to win on November 6th. But I can see the pundits who favor straining and straining to find a Romney victory in the tea leaves and getting up the hopes of similarly oriented viewers and readers.
Politico is reportedly one of the best. Their web site swing state map has Obama at 281 electoral votes and Romney at 257. If that’s the way it ends, Obama is re-elected.
In the 1950s, Democrat Adlai Stevenson ran twice against Dwight Eisenhower. During one campaign, a supporter told Stevenson,
“All thinking people are with you.”
“That’s not enough,” Stevenson replied. “I need a majority.”
Actually, what you need is a majority of the electoral college. Al Gore had a majority. Which meant he became unemployed.
Here are things I have been hearing about Romney and the polls.
Romney’s got the momentum.
Maybe so, but unless you have a majority of the electoral college you don’t win. Momentum can take you way up from where you were and still deliver you to a place where you lack that majority.
Romney has wiped out Obama’s lead with women.
Well, that’s nice, but it doesn’t mean he will get a majority of the electoral college.
Romney has won most of the independents.
Also nice, but there may not be enough of them to win the swing states and get a majority of the electoral college.
Romney leads the national polls.
So did Gore on election day itself, but he did not win the electoral college. As I said in a recent article, it is possible to get as many as 95 million more votes than the other guy and still lose the electoral college vote.
Romney’s moving up and Obama’s moving down.
Doesn’t matter if Obama was way ahead and is still a little ahead in the electoral college on election day.
A majority now believe Romney would be better on the economy.
Well, duh. But that is not necessarily a majority of the electoral college.
Romney won the first debate big and got a big bounce out of it.
Means nothing if he was so far down before that the big bounce does not carry him up to a majority of the electoral college by election day.
Romney is now tied with Obama on foreign policy ratings.
Nice, but meaningless when they count the electoral votes.
No president has ever won reelection with bad economic numbers.
Other than Reagan and FDR. No president ever won election with a black father before 2008.
Obama’s campaign is in a panic.
Maybe, but that doesn’t mean they will end up with fewer electoral votes than Romney on election day.
Romney’s likely voters are more enthusiastic than Obama’s.
And if Romney wins, that may be one of the post-election conclusions as to why. But more enthusiasm is not necessarily more electoral votes.
Obama is being hurt by Benghazi.
You watch too much Fox News. No one else is covering it. Fox viewers were already anti-Obama.
Anyway, you get the idea. If you want to know who’s going to win the election, vote, turn off your TV, then turn it on on November 7th. There is no way to know in advance and there is no point in putting yourself through an emotional roller coaster in the interim.
John T. Reed