Every so often, someone writes a book or produces a study or a film or some other information document that forecasts impending environmental doom—typically based on running out of something. They make their authors rich and famous briefly then fade away.
This article is about the various such prophets who have become famous and scared large numbers of people by predicting shortages of some necessary substance.
|
Substance that we were said to running out of |
Where predicted |
Comment |
| food—said population would become too large to feed | Thomas Malthus’ 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population said the world would run out of food around 1850 | Malthus failed to anticipate increased efficiency in food production |
| food—said population would become too large to feed | Paul Ehrlich in a 12/67 New Scientist article and in his 1968 book The Population Bomb and the founding of the Zero Population Growth group | Here is a statement from his Wikipedia biography: “Ehrlich predicted that the world would experience famines sometime between 1970 and 1985 due to population growth outstripping resources. Ehrlich wrote that "the battle to feed all of humanity is over ... In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." Ehrlich also stated, "India couldn't possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980," and "I have yet to meet anyone familiar with the situation who thinks that India will be self-sufficient in food by 1971." These specific predictions did not actually come to pass, and his later book The Population Explosion is much more cautious in its predictions.” Julian Simon, a college professor, bet Ehrlich that he was wrong, using certain commodity prices as the measure. When the appointed date arrived, Ehrilch lost the bet and paid Simon. Ehrlich won a MacArthur Foundation “genius” award in spite of making such predictions as “England will no longer exist in the year 2000.” |
| oil | Club of Rome 1972 report Limits to Growth | Based on known reserves of oil which generally have stayed the same for more than half a century because more oil is discovered constantly. The best indicator of a true shortage is a long-term increase in market prices for the commodity in question. From 1946 to 1972, the price of oil was about $20 a barrel in 2007 dollars. It spiked thereafter because of an artificial shortage caused by the OPEC cartel reaching a peak of $100 2007 dollars in December 1979. From 1986 to 2002, the price was around $10 to $30 2007 dollars a barrel. In January 2007, the price was $46.63 in 2007 dollars. The price fluctuations, which have been short-term, appear to be more a function of politics and cartels than running out. The price of oil famously collapsed again in late 2014. |
| oil, coal, gas | Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at Harvard Business School best selling 1979 book | book was written during the second era of long lines at gas stations (the first was in 1973). Government studies later concluded the lines were caused by government allocation rules. No lines were experienced in Japan or Germany in the 1970s, two countries that produce virtually no oil at all. The book said that none of the four main sources of energy—oil, coal, gas, or nuclear power—could produce more energy than they were in 1979. In fact, worldwide energy production of 320 quadrillion Btu in 1987 increased by 55 quadrillion Btu by 1996. Of course, it also went up between 1979 and 1986 and since 1996. |
| air with historical amounts of carbon-dioxide | 2006 Academy-Award-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore | Says that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased after World War II and so did the number of human carbon dioxide generating activities therefore the latter caused the former and must be stopped. In fact, the earth’s temperature fluctuates constantly and there is no scientific consensus that it is warming dangerously at present or that if it is that man is the cause of it.
Prior to claiming to be an expert on global climate change, Gore claimed he was the inspiration for the Oliver Barrett IV character in the book and movie Love Story and that he created the Internet. The earth warmed significantly many times, ending ice ages, before humans existed. One brief article refuting Global Warming hysteria is at http://www.nationalcenter.org/TSR032204.html. |
I am sure there have been other widespread shortage scares. I would appreciate it if readers would remind me of them so I can add them to this article.
Thanks,
John T. Reed